The Middle East 'Soap' scenario

 
The Middle East 'Soap' scenario
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In reality, all countries agree that the Islamic State (IS) is a huge threat, and that it is necessary with a broad coalition to fight the Islamists, but...

The United States has formed a coalition with the rich Gulf countries Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq, and European countries, to combat IS in Syria and Iraq.

Quietly the coalition's attacks in Iraq are coordinated with Iran, which is allied with the governments in both Iraq and Syria, and Assad accepts that the US and and the coalition bomb and attack IS in Syria.

Russia would like to participate in a military coalition against IS, which the Russians also fear because of the contagion effect in the Caucasus region.

But the big controversy regarding Assad prevents such a coalition, and consequently a peace treaty.

Russia loyally supports Assad and believes it is necessary to have him in place against ISIS, while the United States support the "secular" opposition to Assad, and set as a condition for peace talks and a broad coalition, that Assad resigns.

In addition, Turkey will not fully enter into the war against IS because they see Assad and Kurds as a bigger enemy, and Saudi Arabia hesitates because they will not build up under Iran.

Turkey has in recent weeks prioritized the fight against the separatist PKK, although the PKK is a close ally of the Syrian Kurds, who are US allies and the only armed organization offering effective resistance against IS in Syria.

Saudi Arabia hesitate to fully throw themselves into the battle against IS, because they do not want to get into an alliance with its main rival in the Middle East, which is Iran.

Thus this "Soap" scenario is undermining the coordination and the effective fight against IS, despite that both the world's major powers and all the region's countries have agreed upon a common enemy.

"This is the story of two sisters. Jessica Tate and Mary Campbell. These are the Tates, and these are the Campbells, and this is Soap."

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